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On 12th October, the FORE team joined Reddit’s #1 crypto community for an AMA with almost 7 million members. Check out our recap below, as we cover:
seb7mad: “How does FORE Protocol plan to ensure the reliability of prediction outcomes when it’s powered by a decentralized network of validators? What measures are in place to prevent potential manipulation? For example, if a malicious group of analysts say that Team A won over Team B, but in reality it was the other way around. Thanks for burning Moons and doing this AMA!”
FORE_Future: Great question! People-powered predictions mean just that: users create markets, users participate in markets against each other, and users validate market outcomes. So, how do you prevent bad actors in a people-powered ecosystem? How do you ensure the validity of a decentralized ecosystem, when payout depends on accuracy?
In the case of a disagreement between Analysts, a dispute is raised and is resolved by trusted, high reputation validators. This step is crucial, as prediction market outcomes hinge on accurate and reliable validation mechanisms. Our dispute resolution system allows for a final check and referees in a decentralized way: ensuring that any user has the opportunity to report any violations or concerns about a market or its results.
While overall we strive for fast resolution and payout, the validity of this payout is crucial. All participants in the disputed market have to wait until the dispute is resolved and payout is released, which can take up to 96 hours. In that time, the dispute will be resolved by the High Guard: a decentralized network of active Analysts with Black NFTs (the highest tier) who have proven their reputation score to the community and the protocol.
To reinforce and further decentralize the dispute process, we will be leveraging UMA’s technology: an optimistic oracle and dispute arbitration system that securely allows for arbitrary types of data to be brought on-chain. UMA's third-party network of validators, which operate independently from the FORE platform, establishes an objective and unbiased approach to settling disputes on FORE Predict.
You can learn more about this partnership here: https://www.foreprotocol.io/post/uma-partnership
And our dispute process here: https://www.foreprotocol.io/post/dispute
Dubznation300: “I like the concept of earning rewards. I saw your website and it says you can be the bookmaker and become the house. Is your project similar to gambling in a way? You create the bets and other users bet on them? And how do you plan on getting more users and more adoption for your project?”
FORE_Future: Well, we do not class ourselves as a ‘gambling’ platform, but rather a predictions ecosystem. Why? The value of the wisdom of the crowd is apparent - prediction markets prove to be more accurate than individual experts in predicting outcomes. We intend to use this wisdom to create a myriad of solutions (decentralized oracles, market insight tools, etc), so we think the crowd should be rewarded for this.
Decentralizing this industry shifts the power away from centralized entities (like casinos) to create an opportunity for all participants to take part, and all participants to share in the rewards. FORE exists to create a decentralized predictions ecosystem where users hold the power. Users retain ownership of their assets and are rewarded for their productive activity - not just charged for the privilege of using the platform. Users aren’t playing against a house that always wants them to lose, but against other players, with market-determined odds and low fees. That’s why we built a global, people-powered predictions ecosystem: where people have the freedom to create, participate, and validate any markets on any events, and are rewarded for doing so through the redistribution of platform fees!
Our user acquisition strategy is two-fold:
MichaelAischmann: “Thanks for burning Moons to be here. What are key differences to Augur? It also wanted to revolutionize prediction markets & was popular once. And even with Vitalik Buterin as advisor, the project seems dead now. What makes you confident to not suffer the same fate?”
FORE_Future: We have a lot of respect for the team at Augur for their vision and what they achieved in a short span of time. Its success was indeed short-lived, we believe, for several reasons:
Inflationary tokenomics:
Augur had a model where market validators would stake $REP in order to earn validator rewards. But many staking models have turned out to be unsustainable in the long-term due to inflationary tokenomics driving the price of the token down. They continued to mint new tokens for these rewards, and activity began to decline on Augur when staking $REP was no longer financially viable, as the value of the token had decreased so much in that time. Without participants willing to validate payouts, the system collapses. We have worked tirelessly to ensure the deflationary nature of FORE is built into the protocol itself. It’s simple: as activity on the platform increases, supply decreases. Several core functions drive this as I touched on previously, but deflation is built into almost every transaction on the protocol. And instead of minting new tokens for rewards, half of the platform fees are redistributed for activities such as market creation and validation, allowing users to generate income through quick and easy activity on the protocol. That incentive drives further activity on the protocol, which in turn reduces the token supply… and the cycle continues.
Scalability:
One of the main issues facing Ethereum-based projects like Augur was scalability. Ethereum's network congestion and high gas fees made it expensive and slow to use Augur, which discouraged users and traders. FORE Predict is launching on Arbitrum for some of the lowest fees, and we’ve already integrated Polygon and Fantom too. We will continue to roll out additional EVM-compatible chain integrations over time based on low gas fees and user-demand, ensuring that users retain as much of their earnings as possible.
User experience:
The user experience on Augur was not as user-friendly as centralized alternatives, hindering adoption among mainstream users. Decentralized predictions markets in general have failed to capture market share from traditional markets due to the difficulty in onboarding newcomers into DeFi. FORE Predict will have a fiat onramp soon after launch to participate via Apple Pay, Samsung Pay, Visa, Mastercard, bank transfers, and more - allowing ANYONE to use the platform.
Poor user acquisition strategy:
The opportunity for users to participate in markets on any event is something that Augur set out to achieve, but its broad offering resulted in a lack of liquidity and traction without a supporting strategy to bring in users in key verticals. While users can create markets on any event on FORE, our user acquisition strategy will be vertical-focused: initially targeting users interested in sports, crypto, politics, and esports around notable events. This will allow us to bring in users interested in similar markets, ensuring market participants can find markets on their desired subjects, and have other participants in which to take a position against.
Yeoshi_Gamora: “CCan you briefly explain the top milestones implemented by the FORE Protocol before the end of this year or in the future, how will help them succeed, and what the FORE Protocol will look like in 2023 and beyond?”
FORE_Future: Awesome question! Right now, we’re on the cusp of our mainnet launch. Our security audit has JUST been completed and we’re incredibly happy with the results (some alpha here for you r/cc folks, as we haven’t announced its completion to our community yet).
We will be publishing the results shortly, followed with an official live date for our main net (due to be live in the coming weeks). Upon main net, you’ll be able to create prediction markets on any event, participate in markets against others, and validate market outcomes - and earn rewards while doing so. After years in the making, we’re so excited for FORE Predict to finally be live!
After main net launch, the following is on our roadmap:
- FIAT onramp integration
- Gamification seasons
- Real-world partners + sponsorships
- Additional chain integrations
- Secondary market launch (where users can trade their markets and positions as NFTs)
- FORE Predict 2.0, with new market structures like floating points, categorical, parlay markets, and more
In 2024, we plan to scale FORE Predict with a mobile app, and finally expand the FORE ecosystem with B2B solutions such as FORE Oracle, FORE Audit, FORE Sight, FORE Resource, and more.
If after this AMA you’re interested in checking out FORE Predict (which I hope you are!), you can get a $25 bonus on your first market here: foreprotocol.io/campaigns/welcome-bonus
No-Elephant-Dies: “So basically, using FORE, we can become our own casino (and possibly by extension be the house that always wins)?”
FORE_Future: As a market creator, you have the ability to create unique and compelling prediction markets, determining market parameters such as market prompt and categorization, prediction phase closure, validation phase start, verification source, and starting odds. You're rewarded with 0.5% of the total market size, so as market interest and participation increases, your earnings will increase too.
This provides an added incentive for you to ‘market your market’ and actively promote your markets to attract more participants, liquidity, and volume. This model benefits everyone in the ecosystem: holders, players, creators, and the FORE foundation. This innovative approach flips the traditional model on its head, allowing you to ‘become the bookmaker’ and earn rewards regardless of the outcome. So yes - you can essentially become the house that always wins, as you can earn rewards no matter the result of the market.
Stoopiddogface: “Thanks for the burn and AMA. I love how users being able to speculate on events can be trustless... and we can set up our own pools/events Considering the shaky regulatory ground crypto is already standing on, how do you guys plan to stay in compliance with all the different regulatory agencies? Will used ve geofenced?”
FORE_Future: Our legal strategy is complex and multi-faceted, and, beyond the development of the protocol itself, is the area we’ve probably spent the most time and resources over the past two years. Our legal team is constantly reviewing the regulatory landscape to preempt, prepare, and future-proof.
There are certain jurisdictions we will be steering clear of completely (including geo-blocking), and other jurisdictions we will be regularly monitoring. For the jurisdictions in which we will be operating and promoting FORE, it’s important to note we are not a ‘gambling’ entity based on various distinctions (including, but not limited to, the use of our own token that is not USD-denominated, user-created markets, and much more).
We're comfortable with our current positioning in line with existing regulatory frameworks, and we'll continue to monitor, iterate, and evolve in accordance with them!
MarchStreet23: “Can you explain the FORO tokenomics and the hyper-inflationary design of your project? Thank you.
FORE_Future: Just a couple corrections: FORE* and hyper-deflationary* design, I think you mean :) But yes, this is one of my favorite parts to touch on, and maybe for personal reasons.
A bit of backstory as to why we've focused so heavily on what we call hyper-deflation: at the back end of 2021 the other founders and I were going full degen on stupidly inflationary DAOs. Despite our backgrounds in blockchain and finance, we were blinded by the crazy APYs we saw, even though we knew deep down that they could never work because of their inflationary tokenomics. We decided we wanted to build something much better that put users first. Too many blockchain projects fail to take into account the basic laws of economics when building their tokenomics, and other projects simply mint additional supply without consideration of second or third order consequences. Many existing 'staking' or 'passive income' models have turned out to be unsustainable in the long-term due to inflationary tokenomics superseding any value promised through these models.
FORE is a true utility token in the sense that it underpins all activity on the protocol, and the supply of the token is directly proportional to this activity – as is the token’s hyper-deflationary nature. Instead of minting new tokens for rewards, we’ve built a sustainable, deflationary, fee-driven reward model: rewarding productive activity through fee redistribution. That incentive drives further activity on the protocol, which in turn reduces the token supply… and the cycle continues.
There’s two main factors here:
1). Sustainable reward model
Half of the platform fees are redistributed for activities such as market creation and validation, allowing users to generate income through quick and easy activity on the protocol.
Of the 5% maintenance fee taken from each market:
In order for a reward model to be sustainable, it must be attached to productive activity. Our reward model allows users to generate income through activity such as market creation and validation, benefiting the protocol as a whole.
2). Activity-driven deflation
Rather than hosting arbitrary burn events, the deflationary nature of FORE is built into the protocol itself. It’s simple: as activity on the platform increases, supply decreases.
Several core functions drive the deflationary nature of FORE:
Together, we believe this sustainable reward model alongside activity-driven deflation is far more promising and sustainable than gimmicky, inflationary staking or passive-income models. FORE’s sustainable reward model encourages organic growth, user acquisition, and sustainability of the protocol itself, creating long-term revenue generating opportunities for active participants in our ecosystem.
Disastrous_Cobbler13: “Prediction markets work better with deep liquidity that drives market led odds. How do you plan to get the initial user traction and liquidity?”
FORE_Future: Absolutely agreed. As I touched on in a previous reply, Augur’s broad offering of markets resulted in a lack of liquidity and traction due to the lack of a vertical-specific strategy. Our marketing strategy will be sector-led, initially focused on sports, crypto, politics, and esports (in accordance with notable events).
Via targeted campaigns based on user interests, we will drive users through to sector-specific landing pages where they will find markets that are relevant to them. If we have identified a prospective user interested in sports for example, they will be targeted with relevant marketing campaigns and driven through to markets on final scores, red cards, numbers of assists, players on the pitch, weather conditions, draft positions, or even halftime performers.
Similarly, a crypto enthusiast would find markets on the future price of Bitcoin, market capitalizations, NFT floor prices, the next rug pull, or the impact of an upcoming hardfork - allowing them to find opportunities for profit while protecting against downside risks.
This strategy will be repeated for various sectors, allowing us to bring in users interested in similar markets, ensuring market participants can find markets on their desired subjects, and have other participants in which to take a position against.
Responsible_Law_1176: “How do users earn Fore by using the Protocol? What is the incentive model?”
FORE_Future: Thanks for the question! I addressed this in a few other questions, so I'll provide the same breakdown here :)
Half of the platform fees are redistributed for activities such as market creation and validation, allowing users to generate income through quick and easy activity on the protocol.
Of the 5% maintenance fee taken from each market:
In order for a reward model to be sustainable, it must be attached to productive activity. Our reward model allows users to generate income through activity such as market creation and validation, benefiting the protocol as a whole.
For more details, you can check out our tokenomics and more about the FORE platform here: https://www.foreprotocol.io/tokenomics
New_Reputation: “So its like a gambling site but decentralized? Looks cool that anyone can create a match with anything that's happening. With that, how can you make sure that the match is not rigged since anyone can create something? I like to bet random things. Feels like someone can create a hype about something, create a prediction match about it, rigged it and earned money from it. I like to hear your insights about it. Thank you”
FORE_Future: Another great question! That's right, it's a fully decentralized peer-to-peer predictions market. So users create their own markets (and earn a % of the total contributions to their market), other users can participate in the markets against each other (and have better odds and lower fees); and the community validates outcomes (again, for a reward - you're probably seeing the theme...)
The way that we ensure that malicious actors do not game the system has to do with these incentives. In short, acting in a malicious way on FORE Protocol is always a negative expected value calculation and as a result it makes the behavior much less likely.
Also, we incorporated an entire dispute system (also with its own incentives) which ensures that if there is a malicious actor, market or validator, there is no impact on other users or participants.
New_Reputation: “Against big crypto betting sites like stake, rollbit, etc they are established, trusted since they are big. How can you make users trust your protocol or even the code you use for it?”
FORE_Future: Since our technology is all on the blockchain and the protocol is fundamentally community driven, we think that we have a unique offering compared to some of the names you mentioned, and compared to the industry as a whole.
FORE is unique in that it allows users to participate in the upside from the growth of the overall ecosystem in a way that they really can't elsewhere.
Check this out for a bit more detail: https://www.foreprotocol.io/technology
Apprehensive_Crow500: “Is FORE available in the US?”
FORE_Future: $FORE Token is currently trading on MEXC and Uniswap for users who have access to those exchanges.
FishermanSuspicious3: “In the context of prediction markets, what are the advantages of using a peer-to-peer technology approach, as employed by FORE? How does FORE eliminate the need for a centralized third party and counterparty risk, ensuring a trustless and transparent experience for participants?”
FORE_Future: Thanks for the great question! Taking a peer-to-peer approach to this use case makes a lot of sense when one considers some of the drawbacks of traditional prediction markets. When a centralized entity has a monopoly on setting odds, creation of markets and decisions of when and when not to pay, there is a clear moral hazard. And these centralized entities have historically leveraged their relative power to take advantage of users. Just look at the casino analog as an example.
With a peer-to-peer approach, coupled with smart contracts on the blockchain, we can take an extremely innovative and transparent approach to prediction markets and we can provide a better experience that aligns interests much better compared to what exists currently.
Fore more info you can check this out: https://www.foreprotocol.io/post/xrp-case-study
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